EV Story to Take Dramatic Turn

As electric-vehicle sales numbers underwhelm in the U.S. and Europe, a new forecast pegs a dramatic upward turn in the segment.

Cox Automotive predicts that U.S. EV adoption, after its recent downward trend that caught major automakers unawares and forced a pivot, will swing in the other direction late in the decade to put an EV on 90% of auto shoppers’ list by 2033.

The about-face will happen, it says, as EV prices fall and the industry makes technology strides and beefs up public charging resources.

Though almost half of consumers in the market to trade a vehicle today aren’t considering EVs, Cox says, more mainstream consumers are starting to consider them, despite their higher prices. That’s a significant shift from early adopters, who have skewed higher income.

And even those not currently entertaining the idea of an EV, a group Cox calls skeptics, will come around, it predicts. Cox foresees 54% of them changing their minds in the next three to five years and 80% doing so within the next 10 years.

Higher prices are still a factor in EV adoption considerations. Of those currently considering an EV for their next vehicle, 77% are pondering used models.

The forecast goes against the grain of EV news over the past year. U.S. EV purchase consideration peaked in 2022, Cox says, though it considers that shift “a new phase of development.”

“While we’ve seen EV sales growth slow and consideration dip, we believe this is part of a normal growth curve and not the end of the story,” said Vice President of Research and Market Intelligence Isabelle Helms. “We remain bullish on the long-term future of EV sales in America ...”

For now, fewer consumers are considering an EV than last year. Cox says 45% in the market for a vehicle in the next 12 months include EVs in their possible choices, down from 51% a year ago. It says many of the nonadopters are holding out for increased driving range and reliability, longer battery life and more advanced technology.